The Global Survey carried out by Allianz Trade ⁇ every year was renewed and published with up-to-date data as a result of the evaluation of the surveys by expert economists.
In the assessment in the report; In the global survey in 2023, it was stated that 70 percent of companies expect an increase in their turnover through exports, but 2023 ended with a recession in trade due to slowing demand more than expected.
Deja vu of optimism: Are companies underestimating the risks on the horizon again?
In the current survey, it is stated that the companies are drawing an extremely optimistic picture again with the expectation that the recession will end in 2024. In the latest update of the survey, 82% of companies, especially from consumer-related sectors such as retail, home appliances and computer & telecom, said they expect an increase in their turnover through exports in 2024. In fact, about 40 percent of companies expect this increase to be as serious as 5 percent in 2024.
Françoise Huang, Senior Economist at Allianz Trade APAC and Global Trade, said that after more than a year of stagnation, exporters expect a recovery in the second half of 2024, but they have more conservative forecasts. ⁇ Globally, 8 out of 10 companies expect export prices to increase in 2024 and this will support their export turnover. Our predictions are more conservative: After the contraction of 2.9 percent in global trade in 2023, we expect a nominal increase of 2.8 percent in 2024. This rate, which is significantly below the long-term average of 5 percent increase, is a reflection of the disruptions in global maritime transport such as the Red Sea crisis, as well as the increased protectionism risks. ⁇
The risk of not receiving payment is still the most important issue for exporters
While exporters are optimistic, they are also aware of the risks posed by developing their business internationally. Globally, companies are most concerned about; focus on geopolitical risks, input/labor shortages and financing. However, the risk of not getting paid remains at the top of the list.
Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, said: "We found that around 70 percent of companies globally are paid between 30 and 70 days, slightly more than other countries in the UK, France and the United States. Due to low growth, trade disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties, 42% of companies expect longer export payment terms in the next six to twelve months. Longer payment terms mean more pressure on cash flow, and it could get worse. In addition, 40 percent of respondents expect an increased risk of not receiving payments by 2024. These expectations also coincide with our forecast that global commercial insolvencies will increase by 10 percent this year.
In Turkey, although export data are not at pre-pandemic levels, they are relatively promising compared to the global level.
Allianz Trade Credit Intelligence Deputy General Manager and Executive Board Member Altuğ Karagöz said that despite all the difficult conditions in Turkey continued to grow in exports. ⁇ 2024 ⁇ te Turkey ⁇ te achieved a 3.9 percent increase in exports despite global risks, geopolitical developments and contraction of demand in the export market. When we look at Allianz Trade, this increase stands out as a positive development despite the political risks. The increase in the ratio of exports excluding gold and energy to meet imports shows the positive effect of Turkey's return to orthodox policies on the foreign trade balance.
