SpaceX is preparing for its biggest stock market launch ever.
Elon Musk’'s rocket company begins trading on Nasdaq’ on Friday under the code SPCX. The company raised $75 billion (64.5 billion euros) by pricing each of its shares at $135, setting the company's value at $1.75 trillion (1.5 trillion euros) in the largest stock market IPO on record.
The deal will comfortably eclipse Saudi Aramco’'s previous record of $29.4 billion set at 2019’, which was later increased by the general allocation option.
SpaceX did something unusual. EuropeA strong driver to attract retail investors, including those in ’. According to Bloomberg’, individual investors placed orders worth about $100 billion (€86.6 billion) through trading platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity and SoFi during the IPO process.
This demand alone exceeded the company's goal of raising $75 billion (64.5 billion euros) in funding, underscoring the interest of small investors before entering the stock market.
But below this exaggerated advertisement, a few warning lights are flashing. Here are five risks investors should weigh before the SpaceX’ IPO goes live:
1. Is SpaceX’ worth $1.75 trillion?
Investors will value SpaceX’e at a valuation of $1.75 trillion (1.5 trillion euros), about 94 times its annual revenue of $18.7 billion (euro 16.1 billion) at 2025’. By comparison, Nvidia, one of the market's most valuable tech companies, is trading less than a quarter of that level.
Investment research firm Morningstar, which has valued the company at $780 billion (€675 billion), describes the company as “, which is significantly overvalued, while Goldman Sachs data suggests that sustaining the share price will require revenues of over $100 billion (€86.6 billion) by 2030, suggesting that annual compound growth %It says it's over 40’.
2. A valuation based on a small variability
Investors also need to pay attention to the size of the public eye. Although SpaceX’ is valued at $1.75 trillion (1.5 trillion euros), its shares are only %From 3 to %4’ü will initially be open to public trade.
This means that the market value of the company will be determined by trading a relatively small portion of its equity. Reports show that more than 75% of the $75 billion (64.5 billion euros) offer is already allocated to existing investors and insiders, leaving fewer shares in the open market.
According to Morningstar’, limited volatility and strong demand for AI-related stocks can help support the share price in the early stages of trading, even if the company is valued above what the research firm considers fair value. The firm argues that when lockdown restrictions expire and more shares become available for trading, a clearer picture of investor demand may emerge.
But some analysts believe the limited volatility could continue to support the stock. Estimates suggest that when Nasdaq 100’e joins SpaceX’e, passive investment between $22 billion (€19 billion) and $27 billion (€23.4 billion) could flow, creating additional demand from index tracking funds.
History offers a warning note. Research by University of Florida professor Jay Ritter, often referred to as “Bay Public Offering, found that IPOs between 2012 and 2021 averaged on the first trading day. %It increased by 23.6 percent over the next three years. %It turned out to yield a 10.6 percent return.
3. Not profit, but loss.
SpaceX’'s financial results could also cause investors to pause.
The prospectus shows that the company is growing rapidly but still losing money.
The company owns the Starlink satellite internet service, which generates most of its revenue and is its only profitable business. He also owns the artificial intelligence company xAI’, which merged with SpaceX in February.
According to the application, SpaceX posted a cumulative deficit of $41.3 billion (€35.76 billion) as of March 31, and reported a net loss of $4.27 billion (€3.7 billion) in the first quarter of 2026’.
This compares to $528 million (457 million euros) in the same period of the previous year.
Most of the recent losses are due to xAI’. According to SpaceX’'s public offering application, the artificial intelligence business 2025’te recorded operating losses of approximately $6.4 billion (€5.5 billion). The application also showed that xAI’ was spending heavily in the first months of 2026’ while expanding its artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Morningstar argues that the artificial intelligence unit “ poses a material threat to the loss of value, and Grok” has not yet achieved meaningful market share against competing chatbots.
Supporters say losses are a choice, not a structural flaw.
Revenue from the previous year's $14.1 billion (12.2 billion euros) in 2025’te %It rose 33 percent to $18.7 billion (€16.2 billion). The basic launch and satellite business was profitable as recently as 2024. The vulnerabilities largely reflect the intense investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure; The expenditures said by the supporters are already being compensated by new computing contracts.
4.Artificial intelligence growth gambling
Supporters argue that investors are paying for future growth instead of existing profits.
While Starlink remains the company's main source of revenue, the AI business is expected to play a larger role in the coming years.
The bulls also point to SpaceX’'s dominant position in rocket launch and satellite communications, suggesting that the company is uniquely positioned to benefit from the growing demand for connectivity, computing power, and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
SpaceX launches more rockets each year than the rest of the world combined, and has more than nine million Starlink subscribers, but the newest growth driver is the AI data center business purchased through the xAI merger.
Last Friday, Google agreed to pay $920 million (€796.6 million) per month for compute capacity at SpaceX’e xAI data centers in a 32-month agreement that will run from October 2026’ to June 2029’, covering access to approximately 110,000 Nvidia GPU’s.
This was after the agreement in May, when Anthropic’in paid $1.25 billion (EUR 1.08 billion) per month to lease the entire output of the Colossus 1 data center by May 2029, with total annual computing revenue of about $26 billion (EUR 22.5 billion).
The bulls argue that this contracted income, obtained in less than four months, shows how quickly the company can make money from its infrastructure. Skeptics note that both contracts include 90-day termination provisions after December 2026’, with Google’ itself framing the agreement as “bridge capacity” rather than a permanent commitment.
5. Risk the size of Elon Musk
SpaceX’'s success, profile, and past performance are closely linked to Elon Musk’, which has helped attract investors, customers, and business partners. This creates what investors call “kilit person risk”; I mean, concerns about how the company would perform if he didn't lead anymore.
The management structure of the company strengthens this dependence. Musk’'s super-voting Class B shares give him an approximate voting power of %He gives away 85’ini, and outside shareholders have little impact on key corporate decisions. In practice, this means that no one but Musk’ can decide whether or not to remain CEO.
Critics also note SpaceX’'s establishment in ’, Texas; Only the least amount of shares %Investors who own 3’ can file derivative lawsuits. The Danish academic pension fund AkademikerPension has blacklisted the stock, describing its management structure as “ Catastrophe”.
Supporters argue that double-class sharing structures are common among U.S. tech firms, including Meta and Alphabet’. They say intense voting control allows founders to achieve long-term goals without pressure from short-term investors.
Musk’'s reputation also brings political risk. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to review the listing, warning that its inclusion in the index in the future could expose millions of passive investors to stocks without actively selecting them.
Others noted that SEC’ completed its review faster than expected, suggesting that this allowed the IPO process to proceed without delay and that regulators saw no immediate impediment to listing.
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