Demand for air travel is strong and revenues are growing in the airline industry, but profits are expected to halve by 2026, as rising jet fuel prices affect companies worldwide, according to the International Air Transport Association ’ne (IATA).
This is global air traffic. %It is mentioned in the latest financial outlook of the trading establishment, which represents the 370 airlines that make up 85’ini.
Worldwide airlines are expected to generate a total net profit of $23 billion (euro 20 billion) by 2026; This is roughly half of the previously projected $41 billion (36 billion euros) and the estimated $45 billion (39 billion euros) in 2025.
This is the annual %2.4 increase to a record 5.1 billion passengers and sector revenues %It rose 9.4 percent to $1.165 trillion (€1.01 trillion).
Willie Walsh, IATA Managing Director, “, said that war-related disruptions and rising fuel costs in the Middle East’ have worsened the look of airlines.
At the same time, the industry's fuel bill has grown from $252 billion in 2025’ (€219 billion) to almost $252 billion in 2026’. increased to 350 billion dollars (304 billion euros), while operating expenses also increased compared to last year. %It is expected to increase by 13 to $1.12 trillion (970 billion euros). Fuel is therefore expected to account for almost a third of airlines' operating costs.
Despite airlines meeting part of the increase in jet fuel prices and continuing efforts to increase efficiency, net profit margins are expected to increase in 2025. %The 4.2 ’den %It's expected to drop to 2.0’.
Walsh, “While air fares are rising, airlines are still covering some of that increase in terms of profitability, ” said. “ added that net profit per passenger is expected to fall to $4.50, which is half of last year, and that's not enough to even buy you hot dogs at most FIFA World Cup venues, ” added, adding that airlines have little buffer to deal with if other costs or taxes start to rise.
In addition to spending on cleaner fuels and carbon offsetting plans, higher aircraft rental and maintenance costs are also expected to put pressure on the industry. IATA also cited the slowdown in global growth, rising inflation and weak world trade as additional pressures on the sector.
The regional comparison
The regional picture is highly unstable. Gulf airlines are among the airlines facing the biggest financial impact at the heart of the conflict. IATA estimates that they are expected to enter the loss zone due to weak demand and operational disruption. All other regions are expected to continue to be profitable, albeit at lower levels than the previous year.
Avrupa’ is also expected to be under significant cost pressure due to its excessive dependence on jet fuel imports from Körfez’.
IATA, “Pre-crisis risk protection rate of fuel needs %Although some of this has been mitigated thanks to meeting the 70’ini, higher costs will arise as hedging measures are eliminated, ” said.
European airlines benefited from the fact that some passengers bypassed the centers of the Gulf, switching to direct routes between Europe and Asia. But as airspace restrictions over Russia continue to disrupt operations, slowing economic growth and rising energy costs are expected to put pressure on consumer spending.
Airlines in Europe’ also face rising costs due to environmental regulations, airport fees and air traffic control fees. Combined with repeated industrial actions in many countries, these pressures can leave carriers in the region at a competitive disadvantage even after market conditions stabilize.
