Bahçeşehir University Economic and Social Research Center (BETAM), ⁇ Growth Evaluation: 2024 2. He published his quarterly report. According to the report, foreign trade was decisive in annual growth.
The report said:
Turkey's economy grew by 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2024. The biggest contribution to growth this quarter came from foreign trade. Net export contribution, which was 1.8 percentage points in the previous quarter, was 2.2 percentage points in this quarter. Inventory change, which contributed negatively to growth in the previous quarter, also decreased growth by 0.8 points in this quarter. According to the seasonally and calendar adjusted series, the Turkish economy grew by 0.1 percent from the first quarter of 2024 to the second quarter. Private consumption contributed 0.3 points positively to quarterly growth, while stock exchange contributed 2.5 percentage points positively. Investments cut quarterly growth by 1.3 percentage points and net exports by 1.4 percentage points.
The contribution of private consumption is positive
In the second quarter of 2024, private consumption increased by 1.6 percent year-on-year, contributing 0.9 percentage points to growth. According to seasonally and calendar adjusted figures, private consumption increased by 0.5 percent compared to the previous quarter and contributed 0.3 percentage points to the quarterly growth.
Strong annual increase in investments stalled
Strongly increased investment spending in the previous two quarters increased by 0.5 percent year-on-year this quarter, contributing positively to growth by 0.2 percentage points. On a quarterly basis, it decreased by 4.1 percent compared to the previous quarter, bringing growth down by 1.3 percentage points.
Stock change, which contributed negatively to growth in the previous quarter, also reduced growth in this quarter. The contribution of stock changes to annual growth was minus 0.8 percentage points. According to seasonally and calendar adjusted data, its contribution to quarterly growth was 2.5 percentage points.
Positive contribution to growth from foreign trade
In the second quarter of 2024, exports remained unchanged on an annual basis, while imports decreased by 5.7%. As a result, the contribution of foreign trade to growth was 2.2 percentage points on an annual basis. This contribution was 1.8 percentage points in the previous quarter. Looking at the seasonally and calendar adjusted figures, it was seen that exports decreased by 3.9 percent and imports increased by 0.6 percent.
Loss of momentum in public spending
In the second quarter of 2024, public spending increased by 0.7 percent, contributing 0.1 percentage points to annual growth. According to seasonally and calendar adjusted figures, while public consumption increased by 0.3 percent on a quarterly basis, it did not contribute to growth.
The Future of Growing
In the second quarter of 2024, the main contribution to growth came from foreign trade and private consumption expenditures. While the contribution of public consumption and investment expenditures was positive, the contribution of stock exchange was negative. In our previous growth evaluation note, we predicted that private consumption expenditures and investment expenditures in particular will contribute relatively less to growth due to monetary tightening measures to be implemented for the rest of the year within the scope of fighting inflation.
The realizations confirm our prediction. However, our expectation that valuable TL ⁇ will make exports difficult while encouraging imports has been partially confirmed. While the export counted in place, the import fell contrary to expectations. TÜİK ⁇ 's Foreign Trade Statistics show that imports of intermediate goods continue to increase while imports of consumer goods decrease. Despite the valuable TL ⁇ , the most reasonable explanation of this decrease in intermediate goods imports is the negative expectations of the producers for the future. As long as these expectations are not improved, growth should be expected to be low. ⁇
